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Imagining the new internet

Few visionaries will change our lives so radically as those now plotting a new online revolution. By Rhodri Marsden

Imagining the future of the internet isn't easy. Indeed, for people like you and me, it's a slightly pointless exercise. But we're only the dreamers; it's the visionaries who will actually shape the future of global communication.

Some believe that intelligent, autonomous online technology may cut us out of the loop and create grave dangers for humanity; others believe that this is far-fetched. English becoming the only online language is a likelihood, according to some; others strongly disagree. But one thing can be stated with confidence.

Unlike the obscure scientists who were at the forefront of computer networking in the Sixties and Seventies and sowed the seeds of what we now call the internet, today's forward thinkers are debating these possibilities under enormous scrutiny – not least from governments and global corporations, all of whom wish to secure their interests in a new era of global communication.

And, as Ian Peter, co-ordinator of the Internet Governance Caucus (IGC), believes, it is usually in the interests of the most powerful organisations to maintain the status quo. "The possibilities of the internet are enormous," he says, "but as it gets bigger, it gets harder and harder to change. And so radical ideas are more likely to appear from small businesses in China or India."

Peter has made great efforts to fight one form of stasis in his work with the IGC, a collection of NGOs and academic organisations concerned with wresting control of the internet away from the US government and assigning it to a global body such as the UN. "This isn't an anti-US thing... but it has to be addressed to protect this quite precious thing and what it offers us."

The US's primary concern is one of national security – and understandably so: an explosion in cybercrime is something that concerns many online strategists. One of the major flaws of the internet's construction is that it has no security layer; it was conceived in the belief that everyone trusted everyone else who was using it. The scientists who laid its foundations would, of course, have done things differently if they had foreseen how it would be used. Some now believe that completely replacing the internet with a new, future proof network that will adapt to whatever technology may throw at it is the only way forward.

But talk of replacement is somewhat premature for the developing world, where mere internet access is still way down a long list of needs; the majority of internet experts believe that passing technology on to those who don't yet have it should be the biggest priority. While all of Africa's countries now have connectivity, access is limited and expensive. Communication charges are often 10 to 100 times more expensive than in developed countries, mainly due to the lack of infrastructure and the high prices charged by operators.

In many developing countries, mobile growth is outstripping internet growth – so it's unsurprising that it's the mobile space that most visionaries are excited about. Historically, the architecture of the internet has had trouble coping with the concept of mobility; that's only now starting to be shaken off, following the launch of Apple's iPhone. But technology forecaster Paul Saffo believes that the iPhone is only a stepping stone to a tablet-style device that will revolutionise the way we browse the web.

But what about the content that we'll be looking at and interacting with in the future? While virtual worlds such as Second Life are currently restricted to the highly computer-literate because of their less-than-intuitive interfaces, they will inevitably become easier to use, and much more popular. "We'll increasingly learn important life skills in virtual worlds", says Saffo.

In terms of more straightforward web content, Web founder Sir Tim Berners Lee envisages the "semantic web", where computers become capable of analysing data. But as our lives become increasingly bound to the internet, issues surrounding privacy become critical. "It's hard not to talk about the future of technology without privacy being a central theme," says Lee Rainie from the Pew Research Centre.

Organisations such as the EFF (Electronic Frontier Foundation) are important in this regard. They're trying to work out what public policy should be in an online world that's changing incredibly rapidly. Tim Berners-Lee's ultimate goal for the semantic web was a scenario where the day-to-day bureaucracy of our daily lives would be handled entirely by machines talking to machines.

But talk to Sebastian Thrun, Professor of computer science at Stanford University, and he'll tell you that machines are far better at understanding the Highway Code than humans, that we really shouldn't be driving, and in 20 years' time, half of our vehicle miles will be driven by robots, connected to each other via the internet. You might think that any technological predictions written in the last 40 years would be incomplete without a mention of robots – but a 21st century internet could finally see it become a reality.